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Jessie Ewesmont's avatar

Another interesting example involves - not taboos, but straight up embarassing-looking plays. In a soccer penalty kick, what roughly speaking happens is that the shooter kicks the ball left, right or center. The goalkeeper starts in the center and has to simultaneously guess which direction to dive in (or to stay still, if it's a center shot) to catch the ball. You'd expect players to pick each direction about a third of the time, but I believe they statistically pick center much less often. That's because, if they shoot the ball straight at the goalkeeper in the center and he stays still and easily catches it, they look like a dummy!

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EC's avatar

This is a big theme in Malcolm Gladwell’s old book on underdogs, “David and Goliath”. He goes through lots of great examples of underdogs exploiting taboos, like in guerrilla warfare, or in war games, even a middle school girls basketball team that decides to full court press on literally every possession—apparently opposing coaches were irate about it.

I’m also reminded of some Freakonomics reporting maybe like 20 years ago arguing that NFL coaches are too risk-averse on fourth down: apparently they punt way more than the odds alone would predict. The going hypothesis is that they’re trying to save their jobs (which is a way of saving face, I guess?), rather than win the game.

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